On Sat, 3 Apr 2021 at 22:45, Alvin Starr via talk <talk@gtalug.org> wrote:

[much snipped]

I am really not a fan of Microsoft as just about anybody who knows me will attest to but I also don't see them as being run by a Mike Myers Dr. Evil kind of character.

Ditto. 

Most of the "Windows weenies" I know will run screaming from WSL and I expect that the primary uptake will be by Linux users who are forced by corporate doctrine to use Windows as a platform.

There are many other reasons, some of which I will be going through in my talk at the next GTALUG.

Preview: There is also simple fatigue with thye Linux desktop, such as fighting a never-ending battle with its sound subsystem. PulseAudio would think that my USB microphone is also my default speaker because it has a headphone jack for monitor mode; so PA reverts to that default at every bootup. Eventually you just don't want to keep fighting that kind of crap, and in online community support forums dead ends far outnumber problem resolutions. There are quite a few other war stories built up over the years. Windows has improved markedly in stability, I have encountered zero BSODs in Windows 10. Also, there are too many wonderful programs and peripherals out there that simply will never support desktop Linux distributions that collectively haven't risen above 3% of the global installed base (and are now at 1.85%).

Linux-the-OS is but one piece of open source software, while I interact daily far more with my apps than the OS. One can replace Linux with Windows and still run a full suite of FOSS applications, quite a few of which actually run better under Windows than they do under Linux. Video processing speed can rise significantly when Handbrake (also others) is able to exploit GPU cycles when the driver enables it. I never have to worry about that app which insists on looking like GNOME even though I'm running KDE. And while Steam supports Linux, its experience is optimised for Windows; Linux will never be a preferred gaming platform.

The Cloud is Linux.
Servers are Linux.
Mobile is Linux.
Education is Linux (Chromebooks, Raspberry Pi, etc).
Playstations and Macs are BSD-based.

I personally have no problem conceding the productivity and gaming desktop OS to Windows, we've won nearly everywhere else. And thanks to WSL, I can still run Linux off my desktop when I want it without needing to dual-boot.

It may be that in the long run WSL will actually erode the dominance of Windows and MS.

Hard to speculate, but I envision that the experience of the Edge browser was a dry-run for Windows. Abandon a proprietary platform and evolve to proprietary pieces on top of an open source core. That means Windows will become Linux-based in a similar manner to ChromeOS. Developing WSL is giving MS the expertise in the shims and compatibility layers it will need if it ever goes in this direction.

As for erosion: consider that this sector that MS dominates is an ever-shrinking piece of the IT pie. PC gaming has to compete with dedicated consoles and the looming VR. Much core applications can be run from the cloud. Mobile devices have far surpassed desktops and laptops for content consumption and Macs dominate in content creation. There is a temporary surge in desktop demand because of COVID->WFH but the long-term trend is down. Who else is going to try to challenge MS for the desktop when the computing future lies elsewhere? There's no money in it for a conventional vendor. If Ubuntu, Mint, SUSE and all the current distros between them can't break 2% now, what reason does anyone have that suggests a breakthrough in the future? Weyland?

- Evan